EU study puts ERTMS rollout at up to €85 billion

The European Commission says completing ERTMS across the EU rail network could cost an additional €75 billion to €85 billion, with fragmented technical requirements and national rules driving up prices. The findings matter for rail operators, manufacturers and countries like Ukraine preparing their own deployments.

Why it matters: - The European Commission’s estimate shows how costly Europe’s rail modernization remains when countries use different technical rules and approval processes. - ERTMS is meant to improve cross-border rail operations, safety and interoperability across the EU. - The cost pressure affects both infrastructure spending and rolling stock upgrades, with implications for rail budgets and supplier competition.

What happened: - The European Commission published a study on Oct. 1, 2026, on the cost of deploying the European Rail Traffic Management System across the European Union. - The study says only about 10% of the Trans-European railway network currently has ERTMS. - Completing deployment is estimated to require another €75 billion to €85 billion. - Alona Lebedieva, owner of Ukrainian industrial and investment group Aurum Group, commented on the findings and backed more standardized technical solutions and stronger competition among suppliers.

The details: - The European Commission identified project-specific technical requirements, national regulations, integration with existing signaling systems and complex engineering and approval procedures as major cost drivers. - Different national and project-level requirements push suppliers toward custom solutions instead of standardized products. - The study flags vendor lock-in as a problem because manufacturer-specific technologies can limit competition and make it harder for infrastructure operators to switch suppliers. - Lebedieva said separate technical configurations for the same standard reduce economies of scale and force manufacturers to adapt to individual projects repeatedly. - A separate European Commission study covering 2018 to 2022 found the average cost of retrofitting a rail vehicle with onboard ERTMS equipment rose from about €450,000 to €900,000. - The same study found the average cost of upgrading an existing onboard system increased from €200,000 to €400,000. - The Commission says greater technical harmonization and more consistent deployment practices could improve implementation efficiency. - On Sept. 28, 2026, Commission representatives, railway manufacturers, infrastructure operators and other stakeholders discussed the ERTMS Deal initiative during Connecting Europe Days 2026 in Brussels. - Those talks centered on shifting from fragmented, project-specific deployment to a more standardized approach across the European rail network. - The October 1 study recommends reducing dependence on legacy national Class B systems, simplifying engineering requirements and authorization procedures, strengthening project management and expanding digital engineering tools. - Lebedieva said standardized technical configurations can make production more efficient, reduce custom engineering work and improve supplier competition.

Between the lines: - The study reinforces a broader argument in European rail policy: fragmented national practices can raise costs long after a common standard is adopted. - Standardization is not just a technical issue. It also shapes industrial production, supplier access and the pace of large infrastructure projects. - The findings suggest Europe’s rail interoperability goals depend as much on implementation rules as on the ERTMS technology itself.

What’s next: - The European Commission is preparing an updated European ERTMS Deployment Plan. - The Commission’s wider rail policy work includes proposals to strengthen the role of the European Union Agency for Railways in vehicle authorization and cut unnecessary national technical requirements. - The EU says completing the Trans-European high-speed rail network by 2040 will require about €345 billion in infrastructure investment. - Ukraine is also preparing for ERTMS adoption, including a plan announced at the Ukraine Recovery Conference 2026 in Gdańsk to seek about €1 million in grant funding with Swedfund International AB. - That Ukrainian project would fund a preliminary feasibility study and a step-by-step roadmap for ERTMS on the national rail network. - Swedfund says the work fits Ukraine’s modernization of rail infrastructure in line with TEN-T standards and deeper integration into Europe’s transport system. - Lebedieva said Ukraine should avoid importing the fragmentation Europe is now trying to remove.